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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward script. It commonly functions as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your squad in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a direct path: the skipper who engineered the biggest turnaround receives the award. In reality, it fuels an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring excellent leadership or merely the greatest shock.

Yet the latest competition is fundamentally unique. The list of contenders is remarkably strong. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been messy, with recent conference winners fading and longtime also-rans improving together. Under an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and fun year, he's up against multiple other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical vote ought to shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to demonstrate his rare ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system instead of going rogue. It is an offense constructed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that frees wide-open targets consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to spin magic out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually every bet – overhauling the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the building with the level of expectations he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a typical year, he would be the runaway favorite. But this isn't a typical campaign!

Where Johnson's case runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term winning. However Johnson comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has nailed the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a certainty following his initial public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the team stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting consistent ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year case has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has cooled off after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still